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Canada Updates Seismic Model After Study Flags Yukon’s Tintina Fault as 7.5-Magnitude Threat

Canada’s seismic agency revised hazard maps following lidar surveys that indicate the fault may be primed for a magnitude-7.5 quake.

Yukon snowy mountain.
Image
Tintina fault

Overview

  • Researchers used lidar, satellite and drone imagery to identify ancient fault scarps displaced by up to 1,000 m from a 2.6 Ma event and 75 m from a 132,000-year-old quake.
  • A Geophysical Research Letters paper found the fault has accrued a six-metre slip deficit over the past 12,000 years at a strain rate of 0.2–0.8 mm per year, signaling a late-stage seismic cycle.
  • Lead author Theron Finley warned that if accumulated strain is released, future earthquakes on the Tintina fault could exceed magnitude 7.5.
  • On July 26, Canada’s National Seismic Hazard Model was updated to include the Tintina fault as a discrete seismic source, prompting a revision of regional hazard maps.
  • Authorities in Yukon and Alaska are reviewing emergency response plans and assessing the resilience of highways, mines and communities near Dawson City.