Overview
- Official IRCC data show 278,900 fewer temporary entrants from January to August 2025 versus a year earlier, with new study permits down by 132,505 and new work permits down by 146,395; August approvals fell to 45,380 for students and 16,890 for workers.
- Immigration lawyers and consultants report refusal rates for temporary categories topping roughly 50% in recent periods, with many decisions using identical language that offers little individualized reasoning.
- Experts link the shift to greater use of processing tools such as Chinook, noting that refusal letters and officers’ GCMS notes often mirror the same templates that state the officer is not satisfied the applicant will leave at the end of their stay.
- Judicial reviews are surging, with the Federal Court on pace for about 36,400 immigration filings in 2025, a 47% jump year over year, and some refusals have been set aside and sent back for fresh determinations.
- Policy tightening includes a reduced cap on study permits, mandatory offer-letter verification, higher financial thresholds, stricter rules on low-wage hiring and PGWP eligibility, and narrower spousal work rights for students and temporary workers.