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Canada Posts Modest October Housing Rebound as U.S. Builders Lean on Discounts

Easing borrowing costs are setting up a cautious 2026 recovery.

Overview

  • CREA reported 42,068 Canadian home sales in October, up 6.0% from September, with the MLS HPI up 0.2% month over month and the national average price at $690,195.
  • Market balance in Canada tightened slightly as the sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 52.2%, months of inventory held at 4.4, and roughly 189,000 listings sat near typical seasonal levels.
  • Smaller and mid-sized Canadian markets drove October gains, while large urban centers such as the GTA and Greater Vancouver showed more muted movement.
  • U.S. homebuilder confidence stayed weak in November with the NAHB/Wells Fargo index at 38, as 41% of builders cut prices and 65% used incentives amid soft buyer traffic and labor-market concerns.
  • Mortgage rates have eased into the mid-6% range, and NAR’s Lawrence Yun projects a 2026 upturn with existing-home sales rising about 14%, new-home sales up 5% and national prices gaining roughly 4% as rates drift toward 6%.