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Canada Posts First Annual Population Decline Since Confederation

Preliminary estimates tie the drop to a policy-driven fall in temporary residents, with revisions possible once permit extensions are counted.

Overview

  • Statistics Canada estimates the population stood at 41,472,081 on Jan. 1, 2026, down about 102,000 people year over year, roughly a 0.2% decline.
  • A sharp quarterly drop of 171,296 non-permanent residents in late 2025 drove the decrease, bringing that group to about 2.68 million and shrinking its share to 6.4% from a 7.6% peak in 2024.
  • Ottawa continues to target a reduction of temporary residents to 5% of the population by the end of 2027 after curbs on international students and temporary workers.
  • Permanent resident admissions fell nearly 20% year over year in the fourth quarter to about 83,000, aligning with lower federal intake targets, while natural increase was slightly negative (-781).
  • Regional effects were uneven, with British Columbia and Ontario posting the largest declines in 2025 and Alberta remaining the top destination for interprovincial migrants for a 14th straight quarter.