Particle.news
Download on the App Store
9 ARTICLES
·
3w ago

Canada Must Double Homebuilding Over Next Decade to Restore Affordability

Analysts warn that meeting the target will require workforce expansion, regulatory reform and innovation with rental demand already outpacing supply by over 900,000 units.

The construction industry faces productivity challenges, made worse by an expected worker shortfall of about 108,000 workers by 2034.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says up to 4.8 million new homes will need to be built over the next decade to restore affordability levels last seen in 2019, based on projected demand.
Construction crews work on homes in west Edmonton in 2024.
A home is seen under construction in Upper Greenwich in Calgary on Thursday, April 10, 2025.

Overview

  • CMHC projects Canada needs 430,000–480,000 new housing units per year through 2035—about 4.8 million homes over the next decade—to return to 2019 affordability levels.
  • Under a business-as-usual scenario, house prices are forecast to consume 52.7 percent of average household income by 2035, up from 40.3 percent in 2019, but doubling construction could lower that ratio to 41.1 percent.
  • Aled ab Iorwerth of CMHC says achieving this pace hinges on a significantly larger and modernized workforce, greater private investment, streamlined regulations, faster approvals and construction technology innovations.
  • National Bank of Canada Financial Markets reports the rental market was short by more than 900,000 units at the end of 2024, and predicts supply will only gradually catch up after immigration quotas were scaled back.
  • TD Economics cautions the federal goal of 500,000 annual completions by 2035 may exceed actual needs and suggests focusing on a more attainable target of around 400,000 homes per year given labour and productivity constraints.