Overview
- Statistics Canada reported December CPI at 2.4% year over year versus 2.2% expected, while CPI‑median eased to 2.5% and CPI‑trim to 2.7%, their lowest since late 2024.
- The rise largely reflects the expiry of a temporary sales‑tax break from December 2024 falling out of comparisons, with restaurant prices up 8.5% and grocery prices up 5.0% year over year.
- Offsetting pressures included a 13.8% annual drop in gasoline, though airfare prices jumped sharply month over month in December, and the overall CPI fell 0.2% on the month.
- Economists say the mix of a technical headline lift and softer core measures leaves the Bank of Canada inclined to hold its 2.25% policy rate at next week’s decision.
- UK CPI for December, due this week, is forecast by major forecasters to land around 3.2%–3.6%, with seasonal travel costs and tobacco duty increases cited as drivers and the ONS collection date seen as pivotal for the final reading.