Overview
- Statistics Canada reported on Monday that annual consumer inflation rose to 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August and pushed mainly by higher gasoline and fuel oil prices.
- Gasoline jumped 27.8% year over year and fuel oil surged about 57.8%, producing outsized pain for regions that heat with oil such as Atlantic Canada.
- Measures of underlying inflation cooled, with CPI‑median at 1.9% and CPI‑trim at 1.8%, indicating price gains remain limited outside energy for now.
- Grocery inflation eased to 1.7%, the smallest annual increase since May 2024, while shelter costs rose 1.8% and rents increased 2.8%, showing mixed pressure across household budgets.
- Markets have moved toward expecting the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at about 2.25% on Oct. 28 but price a possible 25 basis point hike in December if energy-driven increases broaden into other sectors.