Overview
- Statistics Canada said annual CPI rose to 2.4% in September, driven by a smaller year-over-year decline in gasoline prices and faster food inflation, with core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median hovering near 3%.
- Money markets trimmed bets on an Oct. 29 Bank of Canada cut to about 77% from roughly 87% before the report, though a 25-basis-point move to 2.25% remains the base case for many traders.
- UK CPI for September, due Wednesday, is widely forecast around 4%, with economists citing higher clothing, fuel and airfare costs alongside government-influenced charges and taxes such as VAT on private school fees.
- Bank of England officials have signaled caution on further rate cuts as inflation proves sticky, and the bank’s central forecast sees a September peak with a return to the 2% target only by mid‑2027.
- A 4% UK reading would be among the highest in the G7 and would set uprating benchmarks for benefits and factor into the pension triple lock, increasing pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the Nov. 26 Budget.