Overview
- Statistics Canada reported CPI rose 2.4% year over year in September, driven by a smaller annual drop in gasoline prices and a 4% increase in grocery costs, with CPI-median at 3.2% and CPI-trim at 3.1%.
- Market pricing trimmed the probability of a Bank of Canada cut on Oct. 29 to about 77% from roughly 87% before the data, though some economists still see scope for a 25-basis-point reduction given weak growth and soft surveys.
- UK inflation for September, due Oct. 22, is widely forecast around 4%, with economists pointing to clothing, motor fuel, and airfares as contributors, and some noting private school fee increases linked to a VAT change.
- A 4% UK reading would reduce the scope for near-term Bank of England cuts; the bank held its rate at 4% in September and officials have signaled caution as underlying pressures linger.
- The UK’s September CPI will set the uprating yardstick for many benefits and shape fiscal planning before the Nov. 26 Budget, while the 4.8% earnings growth figure currently dominates the pension triple lock.