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12h ago

Canada Home Sales Dip as Market Shifts Toward Balance

Forecasters expect demand to build into 2026 with lower rates restoring confidence.

A for sale sign is displayed outside a home in Toronto, Ontario in Toronto, Ontario, Canada December 13, 2021. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File Photo
A real estate sign is posted outside a home in Pointe-Claire, a city in Montreal's West Island, Tuesday, May 7, 2024.
A new home is displayed for sale in Ottawa.
The British Columbia Real Estate Association says tariff uncertainty has slowed housing activity. New town houses are seen in Delta, B.C., with Mount Baker in Washington in the distance, on Thursday, July 11, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

Overview

  • CREA reported a 1.7% month‑over‑month decline in September home sales, the first drop since April, with the Home Price Index down 0.1% on the month and 3.4% year over year.
  • Sales fell in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal, offsetting gains in the Greater Toronto Area and Winnipeg, though activity was the strongest for a September since 2021.
  • Royal LePage lowered its year‑end outlook, now expecting national prices to finish about 1% above Q4 2024 as the market moves toward balance and buyers gain leverage.
  • Expensive markets such as Toronto and Vancouver are projected to post year‑over‑year declines, while Quebec City is forecast to lead gains with an increase of about 15%.
  • Supply remains tight with 4.4 months of inventory and fewer new listings, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.5% in September, and CMHC said housing starts rose 14% in the month led by rentals in Montreal and Toronto.