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Canada Enters Technical Recession as Population Declines

Lower immigration, trade pressures, preliminary data uncertainty mean headline GDP falls may not reflect living standards or long-term trends.

Overview

  • Statistics Canada’s preliminary figures show two consecutive quarters of negative annualized GDP growth, meeting the common rule for a technical recession while quarter‑to‑quarter output was essentially flat.
  • Prime Minister Mark Carney said government decisions to cut permanent and temporary immigration helped push population growth into negative territory and reduced aggregate GDP.
  • Real GDP per capita edged higher because the population fell faster than output, highlighting a difference between headline GDP and measures of average living standards.
  • The Bank of Canada and independent economists urged caution, noting the first‑quarter decline is small, preliminary and within known measurement error so the numbers could be revised.
  • The OECD projects a modest rebound through 2027 and analysts say trade uncertainty, U.S. tariffs and weak business investment are the main headwinds to watch for workers and firms.