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Canada Braces for 2026 Permit Expiry Surge With Risk of Mass Loss of Status

Tighter rules are shrinking legal pathways, with a consultant estimating Indians could comprise about half of those at risk.

Overview

  • IRCC-derived figures reported Jan. 2 show about 1,053,000 work permits expired by the end of 2025 and roughly 927,000 more are set to expire in 2026.
  • Nearly 315,000 expiries are expected in the first quarter of 2026, up from more than 291,000 in the last quarter of 2025, raising warnings of a processing bottleneck.
  • Temporary residents lose legal status when permits lapse unless they secure another visa or transition to permanent residency, options that have become more restrictive.
  • A consultant projects up to two million people could be out of status by mid-2026, with Indians potentially accounting for about half, noting the estimate is conservative.
  • Local strains are emerging in parts of the Greater Toronto Area, and worker advocates including the Naujawan Support Network plan January protests calling for reform.