Overview

• The Paquete Económico 2026 proposes raising the general IEPS rate on cigarettes and other tobacco from 160% to 200%, with a per‑cigarette quota rising from 0.8516 pesos in 2026 to 1.1584 pesos by 2030, and a 200% rate for new nicotine products.
• Finance officials’ plan implies at least a 20‑peso increase per cigarette pack starting in 2026, according to the published proposal.
• Canacintra argues the illicit cigarette market already exceeds 20% of consumption, estimating annual tax losses of 13–15 billion pesos if the hike proceeds.
• The chamber cites the 2010 per‑pack increase of 7 pesos as precedent, noting revenue came in at 30 billion pesos versus 42 billion projected as illicit supply grew to about 20% of the market.
• The tobacco measure sits within a wider IEPS package covering sugary drinks, betting and violent videogames, and lawmakers are evaluating the plan as Canacintra urges information and prevention campaigns instead of higher taxes.