Overview
- Polls published on Friday show the AfD near or above 40 percent and have prompted local initiatives to urge voters to cast tactical ballots to avert an absolute AfD majority.
- Sachsen-Anhalt uses two votes: a constituency first vote for a person and a party second vote that alone sets proportional seats, while only parties above five percent are included in that seat count.
- If several small parties fail to reach five percent, their votes drop out of the seat math and boost seat shares for parties that pass, so a 40 percent vote share can translate into roughly 45–50 percent of seats.
- Analysts outline two tactical routes for anti‑AfD voters: consolidate behind the largest non‑AfD party or shift votes to smaller parties to fragment the Landtag, with the latter seen as more likely to prevent an AfD majority in current polls.
- The effect of any tactical push is uncertain because polls shape perceived viability and undecided voters will decide the outcome, with the Greens and BSW closest to five percent and thus most likely to tip the balance.