Overview

• Industry figures warn the guarantee is unaffordable over the long term, with Gallagher’s Mark Pemberthy calling for reform as costs jump when wages or inflation spike.
• Labour says it will keep the promise this Parliament, though officials are exploring potential replacement models alongside the commission’s work.
• The new Pensions Commission, chaired by Baroness Jeannie Drake, Sir Ian Cheshire and Professor Nick Pearce, is due to report in 2027, while a separate review is examining the state pension age.
• Earnings growth of 4.7% points to a 2026/27 uplift taking the full New State Pension to about £241.05 a week (£12,534 a year) and the Basic State Pension to £184.75.
• State pension spending is put at about £145.6bn in 2025/26 and the OBR estimates the guarantee costs roughly £10bn more than earlier projections, with frozen tax thresholds likely to pull more retirees into income tax.