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California Study Predicts Heat-Driven Surge in ER Visits With Declining Cold-Related Deaths

By 2050 moderate warming could trigger 1.5 million additional emergency visits in California

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Overview

  • Analysis of 2006–2017 zip code–level data shows emergency department visits rise linearly as daily temperatures increase across the state
  • Fewer extreme cold days are projected to reduce temperature-related deaths even as heat-driven mortalities tick up
  • By midcentury, models estimate a 0.46% increase in ER visits alongside a 0.18% drop in hospitalizations and a 0.43% decline in deaths due to shifting temperatures
  • Projections through 2100 foresee a 0.76% rise in emergency visits, a 0.38% decrease in hospital admissions and a 0.77% reduction in mortality under moderate warming
  • Nonfatal impacts—including injuries, mental health crises and poisonings—are expected to climb with heat, with older adults most at risk from cold and younger groups more vulnerable to heat