Overview
- Voters defeated Proposition 40 in the Nov. 3, 2026 vote, with final counts showing about 52.8% voting No and a separate measure that would block new state asset taxes also prevailing.
- Opponents outspent supporters by hundreds of millions, financed partly by major donors such as Sergey Brin, and backed rival measures (Propositions 41 and 42) written to nullify Prop 40 on procedural grounds.
- Analysts and officials produced sharply different revenue estimates during the campaign: backers’ headline $100 billion claim was reduced by Stanford‑NBER work, LAO‑style and university studies after accounting for enforcement costs and migration effects.
- The campaign’s qualification and runup produced immediate economic reactions, including reported billionaire departures and investor caution, which opponents said proved the tax would spur exits and supporters warned distorted the debate.
- With Prop 40 defeated, supporters signaled plans to keep pursuing wealth‑tax ideas while the state now faces near‑term gaps in projected health funding and likely legal and administrative fights over retroactive valuation rules.