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California Faces Renewed Budget Deficit as Trump Tariffs and Medi-Cal Costs Mount

Governor Newsom projects a $16 billion revenue shortfall tied to federal tariffs and a $6 billion Medi-Cal overrun, prompting legal action and deeper spending cuts.

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Overview

  • Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration forecasts a $16 billion revenue loss through June 2026, largely attributed to President Trump’s tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China.
  • California’s Medi-Cal expansion to undocumented immigrants has resulted in over $6 billion in unexpected costs, requiring an emergency funding infusion earlier this year.
  • Despite $6.8 billion in higher-than-expected tax receipts through April, the state anticipates an overall budget deficit for 2025-26 due to economic and policy pressures.
  • California has filed a federal lawsuit challenging the legality of Trump’s tariffs and plans to seek a preliminary injunction to halt their enforcement.
  • The state has already implemented $27.3 billion in spending cuts and reserve withdrawals for 2025-26, with further reductions expected as legislative negotiations continue.