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California Faces Potential $8.43 Gas Prices by 2026 as Refinery Closures Loom

Governor Newsom directs agencies to collaborate with refiners to mitigate supply disruptions and price surges following Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones' urgent warning.

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A drone view of the Valero Benicia Refinery in Benicia, Calif., on Thursday, May 1, 2025. The refinery is scheduled to close by April 2026. (Jane Tyska/Bay Area News Group)
California Gov. Gavin Newsom discusses President Donald Trump's tariffs during a press conference on Wednesday, April 16, 2025, at an almond farm in Ceres, Calif.
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Overview

  • Two major California refineries, Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero in Benicia, are set to close by late 2025 and April 2026, reducing the state's gasoline production by approximately 20%.
  • USC Professor Michael Mische projects gas prices could increase by up to 75%, reaching $8.43 per gallon by 2026, due to supply constraints and regulatory costs.
  • Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones has called on Governor Newsom to prevent the closures, citing risks to fuel prices, job stability, and energy security.
  • Governor Newsom has instructed state agencies and the California Energy Commission to engage with refiners to ensure a stable and affordable fuel supply ahead of the shutdowns.
  • California's stringent environmental regulations and unique fuel standards have contributed to high compliance costs, complicating refinery operations and increasing reliance on expensive imports.