Overview
- The union-backed initiative is still in the signature-gathering phase and needs roughly 875,000 valid signatures to reach the November 2026 ballot.
- If approved, the measure would levy a one-time 5% tax on Californians with net worth above $1 billion based on Jan. 1 status, with proponents saying funds would bolster health care and U.C. Berkeley estimating about $100 billion over five years affecting roughly 200 people.
- Governor Gavin Newsom argues the tax would erode the state’s long-term tax base and investment and is urging voters to reject it, though he could not veto a voter-approved initiative.
- Opposition funding and relocation signaling have intensified, with Peter Thiel giving $3 million to the lead anti-tax campaign and figures like David Sacks and Google’s founders taking steps to leave, even as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says he is willing to pay.
- Surveys show substantial but mixed backing (Nestpoint reporting majority support and Mellman finding a narrower edge), legal experts expect court challenges if it passes, and analysts say the near-term impact on Bay Area housing would likely be limited without a broad corporate exodus.