Overview
- CaixaBank Research published its forecast on Monday projecting GDP growth of about 2.6% for 2026 and about 2.0% for 2027.
- The report expects inflation to ease from roughly 3.4% this year to about 2.5% in 2027 while warning that a spike in energy prices could raise inflation and reduce growth.
- CaixaBank models a downside scenario in which an energy-price escalation knocks 2027 growth down to around 1.7% and prompts additional central-bank tightening.
- The bank attributes Spain’s resilience to a strong labour market, healthy household and corporate balances, rising population from migration, NextGeneration EU funds and robust residential investment.
- CaixaBank flags investment in artificial intelligence as a possible upside for global growth only if it spreads into the real economy and delivers expected profits, and it notes further small rate rises by the ECB and the Fed as likely risks to monitor.