Overview
- Quaest polls released Tuesday show strong state-level advantages for incumbents and front-runners, including Tarcísio de Freitas leading São Paulo governor voting at 40% to Fernando Haddad’s 27%, Eduardo Paes at 37% in Rio and Raquel Lyra at 44% in Pernambuco.
- The same Quaest snapshots show a localized, tightly split presidential picture in large states, with Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nearly tied in São Paulo at roughly 30% and 29% respectively.
- Electoral courts and the TSE are intervening in campaign content: TRE‑SP ordered Guilherme Derrite to remove a video accusing Haddad of buying drugs with public funds, and Lula’s coalition filed complaints at the TSE seeking sanctions and content removal after debate attacks by Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado.
- Legislative action is being accelerated to influence the campaign, as Senate relator Omar Aziz prepares a CCJ report and a possible early‑September vote on the PEC to end the 6x1 work schedule that parties hope to cite in electoral propaganda.
- Separately, the AGU has received the STJ acórdão on former minister Marco Buzzi, starting a 30‑day window to file a Supreme action, and the convergence of polls, court orders and fast legislative timing is likely to reshape messaging, voter perceptions and pressure on swing senators and candidates in the coming weeks.