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Cabrera Returns, Ray Struggling as Model Backs Under for CubsGiants

A 10,000-simulation projection favors fewer than 11 combined runs which could reshape betting choices despite winds forecast to push the ball out at Wrigley.

Overview

  • The Cubs host the Giants at Wrigley Field on Friday with first pitch set for 2:20 p.m. ET and sportsbooks listing Chicago around -166 on the money line, San Francisco +139, and an 11-run total.
  • Edward Cabrera is coming off the injured list to make the start for Chicago and carries a history of blister trouble plus notably better splits at home and in day games.
  • Robbie Ray will start for the Giants while in a four-start winless skid marked by high walk totals, short outings and a poor May that has raised questions about his ability to rebuild trade value.
  • SportsLine’s model ran 10,000 simulations and favored the Under, projecting about 8.8 combined runs and an Under result in roughly 80% of trials.
  • Wind forecast near 15 mph blowing out and Chicago’s stronger offense versus San Francisco’s weak road scoring record create a real scoring risk that could change prop prices and same-game parlay value.