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BYD Set to Overtake Tesla in 2025 EV Sales as Tesla Signals Softer Q4

Tesla's unusual publication of analyst delivery estimates underscores a post‑tax‑credit demand reset that leaves its 2025 total well below BYD's pace.

Overview

  • BYD reports about 2.07 million electric vehicles sold through November, putting it on track to finish 2025 ahead of Tesla in cumulative deliveries.
  • Tesla said analysts expect 422,850 Q4 deliveries, implying roughly 1.64 million for the year, and its shares slipped about 1.1% on the lower bar for expectations.
  • Forecasts diverge, with FactSet near 447,000 for Tesla’s Q4 and Deutsche Bank at about 405,000, the latter projecting steep declines in North America and Europe.
  • A near‑half‑million Q3 delivery spike tied to the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. federal EV credit was followed by a Q4 demand adjustment.
  • BYD continues to scale globally, surpassing 30,000 sales in Spain and adding capacity in Hungary as the U.S. and EU raise trade barriers on Chinese EVs.