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BYD Poised to Top Tesla in 2025 Global EV Sales

Analyst projections of a weak Tesla fourth quarter after the U.S. tax credit lapsed leave BYD’s year-to-date advantage intact.

Overview

  • BYD sold about 2.07 million electric vehicles through November 2025, outpacing Tesla’s roughly 1.22 million reported through September.
  • FactSet’s consensus points to roughly 449,000 Tesla deliveries in the fourth quarter, with Deutsche Bank nearer 405,000, implying about 1.64–1.65 million for the full year.
  • Tesla’s third‑quarter surge was followed by a demand reset after the federal $7,500 U.S. EV credit expired on September 30, weighing on late‑year sales.
  • Trade measures have reshaped competition as the U.S. set 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs and the EU added duties, while BYD builds capacity in Hungary and leans on a BEV‑plus‑hybrid lineup.
  • Tesla shares slipped on lower delivery expectations as analysts highlighted reputational pressures and looked to autonomy plans, including the Cybercab targeted to start production in April 2026.