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Buying Slightly Beats Renting in a 32‑Year German Example

Mortgage paydown plus an assumed €300,000 exit value outweigh taxed ETF gains in the article's simplified calculation.

Overview

  • A model in the coverage compares identical monthly housing costs of €1,200 for renting and buying and finds buying wins by about €54,000 in pure end‑wealth under its inputs.
  • The example uses €50,000 in initial equity, a €300,000 purchase price, 10% purchase fees, a €280,000 mortgage at 3.5% with €1,200 monthly payments, and a 5% annual ETF return for the renter.
  • Under those numbers the mortgage is fully repaid after roughly 32 years and 8 months with total payments of €470,400 and about €190,400 in interest, leaving a debt‑free home valued at €300,000.
  • The calculation’s outcome hinges on key assumptions: a 25% tax on ETF gains, about 1% per year for property maintenance, local rent rises, and small shifts in rates or returns can reverse the result.
  • Broader market data show buying has become relatively cheaper in many German regions, so local price‑to‑rent dynamics and personal factors such as mobility and risk tolerance will determine which option suits a household.