Overview

• The ifo business-climate index fell to 87.7 in September, the first decline after six rises, as firms downgraded current conditions and expectations, with services and logistics weakest while construction improved.
• The OECD now projects GDP growth of 0.3% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 for Germany, against a global 3.2% in 2025, and warns the production drag from higher US tariffs—now at an effective 19.5%—has yet to fully play out.
• Preliminary state data show seven Länder contracting in the first half, leaving real national GDP near 0.0%, with NRW down 0.2% and Bavaria down 0.4% while Bremen rose 2.9% and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2.0%.
• The OECD highlights early signs of softer labour markets and a recent drop in German industrial output, reinforcing concerns about a fragile near-term path.
• Leading economic institutes are expected to forecast about 0.2% growth for 2025 in their autumn report and to press for structural reforms, according to reports.