Overview
- The prime minister confirmed on Tuesday that the current triple lock will stay in place until the end of this parliament and that from April 2030 the direct link to average earnings will be removed and replaced by an earnings backstop with a minimum rise of either inflation or 2.5%.
- The Department for Work and Pensions projects keeping the lock for 2027 would lift the basic state pension by about 3.9%, raising the £184 weekly rate to roughly £192 for eligible recipients.
- Ministers argue the change will generate large savings for social care, with Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden citing an estimated £15 billion a year by 2040 and other ministerial figures pointing to bigger mid‑century savings.
- Opposition Conservatives and some Labour MPs have condemned the plan, warning it weakens pension protection and comparing it to past contested cuts such as attempts to change winter fuel payments.
- Independent analysis shows big trade‑offs: the Institute for Fiscal Studies says keeping the triple lock to 2050 could cost between £5 billion and £40 billion a year, the government proposes a separate mechanism to prevent the pension falling below about 30% of average earnings, and legislation is expected in the coming parliamentary session.