Overview
- Labour formally selected Andy Burnham as its Makerfield candidate for the by‑election scheduled on June 18 and he is campaigning to use the seat as a route back into Westminster.
- Reform UK, running Robert Kenyon, has surged locally after strong May council results and polls show the contest is very close between Burnham and Reform.
- The new far‑right Restore Party and other minor right‑of‑centre candidates risk splitting the anti‑Labour vote, a dynamic polling experts say could decide the outcome.
- On the ground, voters report fatigue with constant elections and anger about local services such as long hospital waits and housing, even as many praise Burnham’s record as Manchester mayor.
- A Makerfield win would be consequential but not decisive because Labour rules require 81 MP nominations to trigger a formal leadership ballot, a threshold that would shape any attempt to replace Sir Keir Starmer.