Overview
- Late July polls, including BMG and Opinium, show Labour moving into a small but consistent lead over Reform UK after Andy Burnham became prime minister.
- Nigel Farage's personal approval has fallen sharply to about -32 percent in recent surveys and he is under investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards over a reported £5 million gift.
- Farage has triggered a Clacton by-election for 13 August that he will contest as major parties stand aside and against novelty opponents, a gamble seen as testing Reform's national appeal.
- Polling analysts credit Burnham's early cost‑of‑living measures — a cut to electricity VAT, a £2 bus fare cap and relief for pubs and restaurants — with much of Labour's short-term rise.
- Labour faces trade-offs to sustain the bounce: MPs are more willing to consider tougher benefit conditionality to fund defence increases and Chancellor John Healey will set out fiscal plans in an October 28 Budget.