Overview
- Recent national polls show a short-term 'Burnham bounce' that has lifted Labour in voting intention and personal popularity since Andy Burnham became prime minister.
- An Ipsos survey published this week put Labour on 28% and Reform UK on 25%, giving Labour a narrow lead days before the Clacton contest.
- A Lord Ashcroft poll reported Reform at 18% and the Conservatives ahead of Reform, a finding that Reform has called an outlier and that some other polls contradict.
- Analysts say the divergent polls produce very different seat projections, with some modelling reducing Reform to only a small number of seats while others keep Reform much stronger.
- Nigel Farage is campaigning to regain his Clacton seat after resigning earlier in the summer amid questions over undeclared gifts, and the by-election is being treated as a key test of his local and national standing in light of the shifting polls.