Overview

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s spring outlook assigns a 60–80% chance of above‑average September–November rainfall for large areas of the east and parts of central Australia.
• The wetter signal is linked to a near‑negative Indian Ocean Dipole, unusually warm waters around Australia—including the Tasman Sea—and Pacific conditions leaning La Niña‑like.
• Sydney, which just logged its wettest winter in 18 years and its third‑wettest August on record, begins spring with a fine week before the wetter seasonal tilt reasserts.
• Melbourne is forecast a warmer‑than‑average spring, but the opening week brings showers and a cold front as fire authorities warn of elevated bushfire risk in parts of Victoria and Western Australia if rains fall short.
• Perth recorded its wettest winter since 1996 and is set for further showers and possible coastal thunderstorms this weekend as cold fronts track across WA.