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2w ago

Bundesbank Sees Slight Q3 Growth for Germany as Industry Stabilizes

The central bank points to firmer manufacturing orders despite higher US tariffs.

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Rückläufige Investitionen, gedrosselter Konsum - und eine unberechenbare US-Außenhandelspolitik: Die deutsche Wirtschaft kommt nach Einschätzung des IW auch 2025 nicht von der Stelle. Erst 2026 sei mit einer "leichten Erholung" zu rechnen.
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Overview

  • ZEW’s expectations index rose to 37.3 in September, while its current‑conditions gauge fell 7.8 points to −76.4, signaling optimism for the outlook but deep strain in the present.
  • Bundesbank’s September report says real GDP could edge up in the third quarter, with industry likely adding to growth as private consumption inches higher and construction stays weak.
  • Germany’s economy shrank 0.3% in Q2 2025, with most states contracting; Saxony‑Anhalt fell 1.1% and Lower Saxony 0.7%, while Saarland grew 0.5% and Rhineland‑Palatinate 0.1%.
  • An EU–US arrangement has applied 15% tariffs to most EU exports to the United States since August 7, reducing policy uncertainty for firms but lifting trade costs and risks.
  • The IW projects no recovery in 2025 and only about 1% growth in 2026, citing weak investment and calling for tax reform, lighter bureaucracy and targeted incentives.