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Bullion Cools After Blowout Year as CME Tightens Margins and China’s Silver Curbs Begin

A historically tight physical market leaves 2026 set for supply‑sensitive swings.

Overview

  • Gold and silver fell on the final trading day of 2025 after CME hiked precious‑metals margins for the second time in a week, forcing leveraged traders to pare positions.
  • Even with the pullback, 2025 marked the strongest year since 1979, with silver up roughly 135%–170% and gold ahead about 64%–76% to repeated record highs.
  • China’s new export controls on silver take effect Jan. 1, 2026, requiring licenses and limiting shipments to qualified producers, adding fresh uncertainty to global supply.
  • Signs of physical strain persisted through year‑end, including low inventories, delivery delays and wider premiums, while investors funneled money into ETFs and explored tokenized silver for 24/7 exposure.
  • Late‑December volatility included sharp intraday drops and lower‑circuit moves on India’s MCX, and analysts cautioned that an expected 2026 silver deficit could keep price swings elevated.