Overview

• In the September NAHB/Wells Fargo survey, the Housing Market Index held at 32, extending a months‑long stretch in the low‑30s that signals generally poor conditions.
• The six‑month sales expectations component rose two points to 45, the highest since March, helped by a roughly 23‑basis‑point drop in the 30‑year mortgage rate to 6.35%.
• A record post‑pandemic 39% of builders reported cutting prices and 65% offered sales incentives, with average reductions holding at 5%.
• NAHB said builders continue to face rising construction costs and it expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates this week, which it argues would ease financing for builder and developer loans.
• Regional readings diverged, with sentiment in the South stuck at its weakest since 2012, the Northeast strengthening, and the Midwest and West little changed on three‑month averages.