Overview

• J.P. Morgan outlines a base case of a narrow result that eases FX pressures and allows real rates to relax, versus a larger Peronist win that pushes the dollar toward the band’s ceiling.
• The government concedes the ANDIS audio scandal hurt the President’s image, and turnout is flagged as a swing factor with calls from La Libertad Avanza to mobilize voters.
• Authorities have defended the peso with heavy intervention in the official FX market and ultra‑high interest rates, with reports of more than US$500 million sold ahead of the vote.
• Market desks largely price a tight race with a 2–5 point loss for the ruling coalition, while defeats beyond roughly five points are viewed as a trigger for greater exchange‑rate, rate and asset risk.
• Buenos Aires holds about 37% of the national electorate, concentrating votes in the First and Third sections, and the result will shape expectations heading into the October 26 midterms.