Overview

• The Sept. 7 provincial contest, encompassing 37% of Argentina’s electorate, is widely cast as a plebiscite on the national administration ahead of October’s legislative races.
• J.P. Morgan outlines two paths: a narrow margin or LLA edge that loosens real rates and eases FX strain, versus a Peronist win by more than five points that drives the dollar toward the official band ceiling near 1,460.
• Market desks and local analysts say a loss larger than about five points would raise currency pressure, keep rates higher for longer, and increase fiscal and asset risks.
• The government concedes the ANDIS/Spagnuolo audio leaks hurt Milei’s image, as it defends the peso with costly MULC intervention and very high interest rates, with sales reported in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
• Participation is treated as a swing factor, with lower turnout seen as unfavorable to the national government and a key variable for Monday’s market reaction.