Overview

• On the eve of voting, the government reaffirmed its exchange‑rate band even as reporting detailed more than US$500 million in recent interventions to contain peso pressures.
• Late‑August polling cited by analysts showed La Libertad Avanza several points behind in the province, with turnout uncertainty viewed as a key variable and Milei urging supporters to vote.
• JP Morgan’s scenarios project that a tight loss or a government win could ease pressures, while a defeat greater than five points could drive the dollar toward the band ceiling near ARS 1,460.
• The ANDIS audio scandal implicating Karina Milei and a series of congressional setbacks, including a veto override on disability policy and new limits on DNU authority, have weighed on the administration.
• Market stress has intensified in recent weeks, with country risk near 900 basis points and high rates, and investors also noted Milei’s U.S. trip ended without announced investment deals.