Overview

• Aresco’s 6,023-respondent survey (±1.24%) projects Fuerza Patria at 41.7% versus 39.5% for La Libertad Avanza+PRO after allocating undecideds.
• Polling averages from multiple firms point to a 2–3 point FP advantage, though individual consultoras diverge and the race remains highly uncertain.
• Geography splits the contest: FP runs up margins in Tercera (47.4% to 32.2%) and edges ahead in Primera, while LLA leads in six smaller sections that together hold roughly 30% of voters.
• Consultants report lower motivation among some libertarian voters tied to economic discontent and the Libra/Spagnuolo audio controversy, a factor that could weigh on LLA turnout.
• Local third forces show traction, with Hechos and Somos reshaping contests in Segunda and Cuarta and Aresco measuring non‑negligible shares for smaller lists, reflecting the impact of the province’s first desdoblada election.