Overview

• City statistics agency IDECBA reported a 2.2% monthly rise, with goods up 2.3% and services 2.1%, the first month since February 2024 in which goods outpaced services.
• Transport (3.5%), housing and utilities (2.4%) and food and non‑alcoholic beverages (2.0%) were the biggest contributors, led by fuel, airfares, rents and seasonal jumps in fruits and vegetables.
• The central bank’s REM survey put national September inflation at a median 2.1% and lifted the 2025 inflation forecast to 29.8%, while trimming the 2025 real GDP outlook to 3.9% above 2024 and estimating a 0.6% q/q drop in Q3.
• Private consultancies offered mixed September readings—from about 1.8% (OJF) to 2.3% (Eco Go and LCG)—and flagged that September’s currency turbulence heightened pass‑through risks and partially unsettled expectations.
• The national CPI for September will be published on October 14, with analysts expecting a print slightly above 2% based on city data and the REM consensus.