Overview

• Major parties from the left to the far right say they will refuse confidence, and reporting casts Bayrou’s chances of remaining at Matignon as minimal.
• The government had planned to present the PLF and PLFSS around October 1 and transmit them to Parliament by October 7, a schedule now threatened by the looming confidence test.
• If the government resigns without filing the budget, a special law under the LOLF could be submitted by December 19 to authorize tax collection and restrict spending, though the SGG deems a full PLF or PLFSS from a demissionary cabinet difficult.
• Bayrou is courting support with a visit to the Medef/REF gathering and has offered to meet opposition leaders starting Monday.
• Markets reacted to the confidence-vote announcement, with Paris equities slipping and France’s 10‑year yield rising above roughly 3.5%, close to Italy’s level.