Overview
- Spain is set to be the fastest‑growing large EU economy in 2025 with GDP at 2.9%, outpacing Germany, France and Italy, according to the European Commission’s Autumn Forecasts.
- The Spanish government plans to raise its own 2025 growth forecast to 2.9% at today’s cabinet meeting, which will also approve the spending cap and a new stability path for the budget.
- Brussels projects Spain’s expansion will ease to 2.3% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with growth powered by private consumption and investment and aided by recovery funds.
- The deficit is seen narrowing to about 2.5% of GDP in 2025 with debt trending toward roughly 100%, even as pressures from interest costs and defence spending are flagged.
- Risks include a potential slowdown in migration flows and renewed trade tensions, though EU and eurozone growth were also revised up after a mid‑year tariff understanding with the United States.