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2w ago

Brookings Says U.S. Net Migration Turned Negative in 2025 for First Time in Decades

Researchers attribute the shift primarily to a collapse in new entries under tighter policies.

A U.S. Border Patrol vehicle conducts surveillance near the border wall between the United States and Mexico, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Jan. 12, 2026.
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Overview

  • Brookings estimates 2025 net migration between –295,000 and –10,000, the first negative result in at least 50 years.
  • The decline was driven largely by fewer arrivals via humanitarian parole, refugee and temporary-visa channels, with Southwest border paroles/notices dropping to about 67,000–70,000 in 2025 from roughly 1.41 million in 2024.
  • The report estimates 310,000–315,000 removals in 2025—well below DHS claims of more than 600,000—and notes more cases were initiated by CBP from the interior than by ICE.
  • Brookings projects very low or negative net migration again in 2026 and expects removals to rise with new enforcement funding under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
  • Economists warn of weaker labor supply, slower GDP and $60–$110 billion less consumer spending across 2025–2026, while their totals conflict with the CBO’s roughly +400,000 net migration estimate for 2025.