Overview
- Brookings estimates net migration between –295,000 and –10,000 in 2025, the first negative reading in at least half a century.
- Researchers say the shift stems mostly from fewer entries after suspensions of humanitarian and refugee pathways and a decline in temporary visas, with paroles and notices to appear falling to about 67,000–70,000 from roughly 1.41 million in 2024.
- The report puts 2025 removals at 310,000–315,000, a tally that undercuts Department of Homeland Security claims of more than 600,000.
- Brookings’ estimate diverges from the Congressional Budget Office projection of roughly +400,000, a gap the authors attribute to differing assumptions about deportations and voluntary out‑migration.
- The study warns of weaker employment and $60–$110 billion less consumer spending through 2026 and projects very low or negative net migration next year, with removals likely to rise if new enforcement funding is enacted.