Overview

• NESO reports margins up roughly 900 MW versus last winter to about 6.1 GW (around 10% of peak demand), the strongest since 2019–20.
• The operator still anticipates a few “tight days” — most likely in early December or mid‑January — when system notices or extra imports may be needed.
• Imported electricity from Europe is expected to be available when required, with a new subsea interconnector to Ireland boosting flexibility.
• National Gas says supply capability can meet peak demand even with unforeseen outages, while overall gas demand is forecast about 3% lower than last winter.
• Domestic output and storage have declined — including Rough not being filled — raising reliance on imports, with about 33% of gas expected from UK fields, 36% from Norway and 24% from LNG suppliers.