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Briefing War Over Labour Leadership Tests Gilt Market Nerves Before Budget

Investors are focusing on leadership stability ahead of a 26 November budget expected to raise taxes.

Overview

  • Downing Street briefed that a leadership challenge would damage market confidence, with officials accusing Wes Streeting of rallying support as he publicly denied mounting a bid.
  • Market reaction was mixed through Wednesday, with City A.M. reporting little change early on and other outlets noting ten‑year gilt yields near 4.43% and thirty‑year around 5.22%.
  • The Guardian reported a small rise in the 10‑year yield and a shift toward political risk pricing, noting UK moves diverged from falling US Treasury yields.
  • Yields had fallen on Tuesday after higher unemployment boosted expectations of a Bank of England rate cut, underscoring the pull between macro signals and political noise.
  • Analysts warn party instability could push borrowing costs higher just as the Treasury chases £30–35bn in fiscal tightening, with the OBR flagging debt interest above £110bn and small yield moves costing or saving billions.