Overview
- The World Series opens in Milwaukee with the Rays and Brewers each chasing their first World Championship.
- Milwaukee outscored Tampa Bay in the regular season and allowed fewer runs, producing a clear advantage in both runs per game and run prevention.
- Brewers hitters posted a higher BABIP (.316 versus .296), which means a larger share of balls in play became hits and helped Milwaukee outperform component-based projections; BABIP can swing from year to year and may regress.
- Tampa Bay counters with top defensive efficiency and the league’s lowest walk rates, which reduce extra baserunners and could blunt Milwaukee’s advantage on balls in play.
- Analytic projections in the preview put Milwaukee at about a 55% chance to win the series and note that the outcome will likely turn on whether Milwaukee sustains its BABIP and situational hitting and whether the Rays can limit walks and long innings.