Overview
- Brent briefly traded above $70 and WTI rose into the mid‑$60s, with Reuters data showing January as Brent’s largest monthly jump since January 2022 before prices eased on Friday.
- President Trump warned Iran of potential strikes and touted a “massive armada” led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, while Tehran vowed an immediate, forceful response and threatened to hit Tel Aviv.
- Iran signaled live‑fire naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, the route for roughly 20 million barrels per day, though analysts said a closure remains unlikely.
- Citi and JPMorgan described the most probable scenarios as targeted or restrained actions, with Citi assigning a 70% probability and estimating the geopolitical premium at roughly $7–$10 per barrel.
- Supply factors also shaped the move, including U.S. weather‑related output cuts, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz restart plan, evolving Venezuelan flows, and a brief surge in safe‑haven metals with gold above $5,500 and silver near record highs.