Overview

• Rogério Ceron argues qualitative penalties tied to 2015–2019 per‑capita growth “no longer make sense” and should be removed.
• He says quantitative models at Fitch and S&P would place Brazil at the first investment‑grade notch, though the country remains two notches below there and one notch below at Moody’s.
• Markets already price Brazil close to investment grade, he says, pointing to CDS spreads below Colombia’s and near Mexico’s.
• Ceron calls the 15% Selic a “brutal” drag on public debt and says the start of monetary easing is a matter of time, subject to the Central Bank’s assessment of inflation.
• The Treasury reports R$10.7 billion blocked under the fiscal framework, flags no significant new budget moves in Monday’s bimonthly report, and says no cash injection into Correios is planned this year.