Overview

• Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest and ineligible, has not named a successor for the 2026 presidential race.
• São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas faces an April 2026 legal deadline to resign if he runs, though state leaders want an earlier commitment to manage succession.
• Paraná governor Ratinho Jr. of PSD has told allies and party chief Gilberto Kassab he is “candidatíssimo,” positioning himself if Tarcísio does not enter the race.
• The congressional push for an amnesty is functioning as a test of allies’ willingness to defend Bolsonaro, influencing coalitions and his endorsement calculus.
• Within the right, a choice between an outsider such as Tarcísio and a Bolsonaro family heir remains unresolved, with commentary noting a radical fringe that might even prefer a Lula reelection to protect the movement’s identity.